Saturday, December 5, 2015

Solar Terrestrial Climate Weave


Here is a modified plot of Paul Vaughan's Solar Terrestrial Climate Weave of volatility (i.e. either standard deviation or variance) of some, as yet, unspecified variable. Clearly, Paul finds that there is a seasonal pattern in the variance of this unspecified variable that repeats itself once every 11 years i.e. it changes phase by 180 degrees roughly every 5.5 years (2 x 5.5  = 11.0 years).    

























It would really help if Paul indicated the nature of the variable whose variance (or standard deviation) he is measuring so that others could share in this important [long-standing] discovery.  

6 comments:

  1. My best guess is that it is the LOD (or its derivative) as the data starts in 1962. This is the year in which high quality LOD data became available.

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  2. How Paul Vaughan is able to generate this plot from LOD data is a mystery. A Surface plot of Z axis LOD and with day of year versus year on the XY axis clearly show the biannual oscillation but a phase change in each quarter over time is not evident. What is the treatment of the data that gives this pattern?

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  3. If you take a thirty day trailing averaged of LOD from Jan 1962 to November 2015 to get rid of the noise, you can geta five cosine fit of R^2= 90% using the following frequencies, 0.5 yr, 1.0 yr, 18.01449344 yrs SEV, 22.1392998 yrs JEV and 176.3/2 yrs. You can get R^2=89% using four cosines replacing SEV & JEV with the harmonic mean of SEV and JEV. Clearly there is not enough data to justify the 176.3/2 yrs or that the correlation is anything more than curve fitting but it is interesting none the less.

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  4. To continue: The above cosine fit was a wild uninformed guess at contributors to the LOD. If the five frequencies are allowed to vary to the best fit, which is R^2=95%, the results are 1.00028132, 0.500009222, 13.3633696, 20.9893984, and 71.7148728. Someone may get an brain wave from these values.




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  5. The so called noise in comment one is caused by the moon.
    See; earth.scichina.com:8080/sciDe/fileup/PDF/07yd1380.pdf
    Whether the 13.6 and 27.3 day cycle moving through time is the cause of PV's solar terrestrial weave, I don't know.

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  6. Re: Modulation of Ice Ages via Precession and Dust-Albedo Feedbacks

    A new paper demonstrating that the primary feedback involved
    in ice age and interglacial modulation is dusty-ice albedo.

    Academia .edu link
    Modulation of Ice Ages via Precession and Dust-Albedo Feedbacks
    https://www.academia.edu/20051643/Modulation_of_Ice_Ages_via_Precession_and_Dust-Albedo_Feedbacks

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